Hormuz closure enters seventh month as ceasefire stalls and war-risk premiums hit 3-10 percent.
A weekly read on Gulf disruption exposure for the week of 14 to 19 September 2026, covering the Hormuz TSS, Fujairah OPL, and the JWLA-033 listed area. Day 204 of the effective closure that began on 28 February 2026 when US and Israeli forces struck Iran and the IRGC announced closure to allied shipping within 48 hours. The June Islamabad Memorandum (Pakistan-mediated ceasefire) collapsed in July after Iran struck three commercial vessels and attacked two UAE supertankers, killing one sailor. Transit counts remain at 8 to 13 per day against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 to 103, a 90 percent decline.
TRANSITS / DAY
Strait of Hormuz - daily chokepoint calls - IMF PortWatch - last 30 days
Where freight and contracts diverge
The desk has tracked Gulf disruption exposure weekly since 3 March. This edition marks seven months of effective Strait closure. The situation has deteriorated significantly since our April editions.
The Islamabad Memorandum in June raised hopes briefly. Pakistan brokered a temporary ceasefire, partial reopening, and 60-day negotiation window. That collapsed within weeks when Iran struck three commercial vessels bypassing the preapproved route, then attacked two UAE supertankers off Fujairah, killing one sailor. The memorandum is now effectively defunct.
Three developments have sharpened the picture since our last edition. First, war-risk premiums have moved from 0.8 to 2.5 percent (April) to 3 to 10 percent of hull value. The jump reflects not just JWLA-033 but the July kinetic actions against commercial shipping. Second, the East-West pipeline was reportedly shut down on 11 September, removing what had been 7 mbpd of Hormuz-independent Saudi export capacity. Third, the ceasefire is stalled with Iran's FM stating the US must comply first.
Cape of Good Hope rerouting has become the new normal. The 13,140 NM detour versus 3,370 NM via Hormuz adds 10 to 14 days per voyage and $40M to $50M per week in added fuel, insurance, and bunker costs across the rerouted fleet. Saudi alternative terminals at Yanbu and Sohar are handling diverted export volumes.
Iran's FM Araghchi told reporters on 13 September that the US must comply with its own obligations before any reopening can proceed. The Islamabad Memorandum is effectively defunct since Iran struck three commercial vessels bypassing the preapproved route in July.
Recent events
- Jul 2026
Iran strikes three commercial vessels; memorandum defunct
The Pakistan-mediated Islamabad Memorandum (June 2026) produced a temporary ceasefire and partial Hormuz reopening with a 60-day window. It collapsed in July when Iran struck three commercial vessels bypassing the preapproved route and attacked two UAE supertankers, killing one sailor. The ceasefire is no longer operative.
- 11 Sep 2026
Saudi East-West pipeline reportedly shut down
The 7 mbpd East-West pipeline was reportedly shut down on 11 September 2026. This removes the largest Hormuz-independent Saudi export route. Combined with the existing disruption, total Gulf trade disruption may now reach 39 percent of global seaborne oil trade. ADCOP remains operational at 1.5 to 1.8 mbpd from Habshan to Fujairah.
- 13 Sep 2026
Araghchi says US must comply before any Hormuz reopening
Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi told reporters on 13 September that the US must comply with its own obligations before any reopening negotiations can proceed. UN Secretary-General Guterres urged dialogue on 16 September. China urged reopening "at an early date." No timeline exists for renewed talks.
- 3 Mar 2026
JWLA-033 expanded Listed Areas remain in force
The Joint War Committee circular JWLA-033 from 3 March 2026 adding Bahrain, Djibouti, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar to the Listed Areas remains in effect. No de-listing has occurred. Hull war-risk premiums have continued to escalate from the initial post-rating range.
Methodology and sources
Two stats are live, pulling from public endpoints every run: PortWatch daily chokepoint transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz, and Ship & Bunker Fujairah VLSFO. Six stats are tracked, meaning desk-curated from trade press or primary documents and updated weekly: VLCC TD3C TCE, Suezmax TD23 TCE, Aframax TD8 TCE, and MR TC5 TCE from the Baltic Exchange weekly round-up; Brent crude from ICE and S&P Global; and hull war-risk premium range from Lloyd's List reporting on the Joint War Committee's JWLA-033 circular. Signals in the recent events section are real events, each with a primary source URL.
Next edition · published weekly.
- IMF PortWatchDaily chokepoint transit calls for 28 chokepointsDaily
- Ship & BunkerFujairah and Rotterdam VLSFO spot pricesDaily
- Baltic Exchange weekly round-upTanker TCEs including TD3C, TD23, TD8, TC5Weekly
- S&P Global Commodity Insights, PlattsBrent and Dubai crude assessments, Middle-East crude derivativesDaily
- Lloyd's Market Association, Joint War CommitteeHull war risk listed-areas circularsOn change
- Lloyd's ListMaritime industry reporting on war-risk premiums and JWC reratingOngoing
- UKMTOMaritime security advisories in the UK-led Voluntary Reporting AreaPer incident
- EIAHormuz throughput statistics and country analysesMonthly
- USNI NewsPre-crisis transit baseline (103.2 ships/day)Ongoing