Hormuz transits hold as underwriters re-price war risk.

The desk has been running a weekly Gulf disruption read since the Joint War Committee re-rated the Strait on 3 March. This edition catches the shape of where real-world premiums, rates, and transit counts are settling, and where they diverge from the contract-language assumptions most owners and charterers agreed to before JWLA-033.

Three patterns keep surfacing in client work. First, Fujairah spillover. Bulk carriers and smaller product tankers are queueing with AIS intermittency the desk has not seen outside named crisis bands. Second, AIS degradation from electronic-warfare band congestion, which analysts are careful to separate from genuine evasion in any forensic read. Third, war-risk certificates re-issued mid-voyage at the re-rated premium. That moves the cost-allocation question from owner to charterer in the middle of the laytime clock.

The freight market will find its clearing rate quickly. It always does. The contract-cost tail runs for months. That is where desk time is best spent this quarter, and why this edition gives the contract questions the larger share of the read.